Are We in a Housing Boom or a Housing Bust?

My name is Evan Kaufman, your VA originator—here to help talk through some of what we’re seeing in the housing market today. Bust or boom—what are we really seeing in housing?

“Location, Location, Location” Still Rings True

You’ve probably heard the old saying “location, location, location” so much in real estate that it makes your eyes roll. But the truth is, it still matters—a lot.

In today’s environment, we’re seeing wide variation across the U.S. in home appreciation—or in some cases, depreciation. But when you zoom in, the differences often come down to location.

Micro-Market Examples: California & DC

Let’s start with some examples to show how this works:

California

In California, especially in fire-prone areas like L.A., we’ve seen extreme cases—sometimes within the same city or even the same block:

• In some neighborhoods affected by fires, home values have dropped by up to 50% in just a few months.

• Meanwhile, just blocks away, prices have skyrocketed due to high demand and lower inventory.

It’s a perfect example of how localized and unpredictable the market can be. Rent has jumped in some areas, while sales prices have tanked in others—purely based on location.

Washington, D.C.

Now flip to the other side of the country—Washington, D.C.. Due to recent political changes (as of late February), listings have spiked dramatically, up nearly 50%.

Why? Many government employees are:

• Being laid off,

• Preparing for layoffs,

• Or just concerned about the uncertain political climate.

So we’re seeing a sudden wave of listings. And that’s impacting prices—but again, only in that local market.

Our Unique Perspective on Military Markets

We work with clients all over the country—especially around military installations—and are licensed in over 30 states. So we get to see what’s happening nationwide, from Virginia and Maryland to California and beyond.

For example, a huge portion of our business runs through the D.C. metro area, since it’s a hub for mid-career military professionals. So we’re seeing first-hand what’s happening with those listings, layoffs, and shifting prices.

But again—these are micro-markets. They don’t represent the full national picture.

The Bigger Picture: A Return to Movement

Now let’s zoom out.

What we’re seeing across many states is what I’d call “pent-up demand.”

Interest rates have been elevated for nearly three years. Back in 2020–2021, people were locking in rates in the 2% and 3% range—some even buying them down into the 1s.

But in early 2022, that changed. Rates started climbing. By 2023 and 2024, they were consistently in the 6–7% range.

Now, in 2025, we’re entering the third year of elevated rates—and people are finally getting used to it.

The Reality of Long-Term Turnover

The average American moves every 7 to 10 years, and we’re now three years into this “new normal.” For many families, it’s simply time to move again.

We’re seeing:

• More buyers reenter the market

• More agents reporting increased activity

• A slow but steady build-up of momentum

Even in our own business, we’re feeling it. And talking to real estate agents across the country? They’re saying the same thing.

The Wildcard: Economic Surprises

Now, could something major change that? Of course. Unpredictable events happen—just like in 2008–2009. But barring some huge economic disruption, people are moving again.

In fact, I feel it personally. My wife and I are getting that itch to move too.

VA Loans and Future Refinance Options

One big advantage for VA loan holders: the Interest Rate Reduction Refinance Loan (IRRRL), also called a VA streamline refinance.

If rates drop again in the future, VA borrowers have one of the easiest paths to refinance—far easier than most loan types.

And that gives people confidence. They understand that if they buy now, they’ll still have options later.

Final Thoughts

So are we in a housing boom or a bust?

It depends where you look.

• Some areas (like D.C. and parts of L.A.) are facing unique market stress.

• Other areas are heating up with renewed buyer activity.

As a whole, we’re seeing pent-up demand start to release. People are more accepting of today’s mortgage rates. And we believe that’s going to lead to more market movement in 2025.

But always remember: location, location, location still matters. Every market behaves differently.

If you want to talk more about what’s happening in your area—or if you’re looking to buy—I’d be more than happy to help.

Again, my name is Evan Kaufman, VA loan originator. Hope you have a wonderful day.

Take care.